The Effect Explained
In plain terms, the Dunning-Kruger Effect is the tendency of the ignorant (and/or uninformed, and/or inexperienced) to overestimate their abilities, and the tendency of the learned, competent, and experienced to underestimate or under-represent themselves.
Here’s an easy example: take a survey of a high school or university class. On the survey, students are asked for their self-assessment of their grasp and performance in the class. With few exceptions (although exceptions are always important), the students in the bottom third of the class will rate themselves as in the top third. Those in the top third will lean towards rating themselves lower than they actually are.
The issue is one of self-perception (‘metacognition’ is the fancier, funner-to-say term). The ignorant do not see what they don’t know, because how could they? The informed are more aware of what they know, but they also recognize what a small slice of the available knowledge they have. The bigger picture is so intimidating that they underestimate themselves. They feel humbled by how far there still is to go.
The Effect Explained in a Story
Imagine that you have set yourself the task of climbing a mountain. Further, imagine that while you know it is a mountain, you have actually never seen a mountain before. The most you know about it is what you’ve heard. There is a small hill near your home which you regularly hike, and you find that easy. How much harder could a mountain be?
The morning you set out to accomplish this climb, there is a fog so thick you can feel it as a weight on your skin. Nevertheless, off you go. The slope begins to increase gradually. By mid-morning, you are sweating slightly. You’ve adjusted the laces of your boots several times, your water is half gone, and you’re thinking about eating one of your energy bars. You’ve hit your stride, and are enjoying the experience. You are thrilled to notice that the trees are thinning. Rock and gravel scree are replacing dirt and pine needles under your feet. The summit must surely be close, and you are confident that the view will be worth all your effort.
There is a break in the fog! You pick up your pace, and finally break through. Standing at the top, you feel great pride in your accomplishment, and why not? It was difficult in places, but you were equal to the task. Now, you can enjoy the view. The fog lifts, the sun heats your skin, you take a deep, refreshing breath, you look around.
Imagine your horror when you discover that the “mountain” you just conquered is a foothill. It was a preview, leading to your first sight of the real thing. Which is big. Monumentally huge, even. In fact, when most of us first see a mountain up close, we experience a permanent readjustment of our intuitions about the world.
Story Break-Down
No matter how prepared we think we are, seeing a mountain for the first time is literally stunning. Pictures, vivid descriptions, even movie-length documentaries fail to capture that moment. It must be experienced.
The Dunning-Kruger effect is quite predictable, and is not (in general) an issue of fault. How can we know the full extent of a field of knowledge if we have not at least started to learn about it? Once we’ve begun learning, we start to get a sense of how much there is. Without that initial contact, it is nearly impossible to fully appreciate the ‘mountain’, as it were.
Let’s take the field of leadership studies as an example. Our circle will include everyone in the world. The largest category includes those who are unaware that leadership studies exist. If they did know, they probably wouldn’t have any reasons to care.
Then, there are those who are aware that leadership can be studied. That is a good first step, but most will never take a second.
The next largest group are those who have begun climbing. Perhaps they have started their first book on the subject. They are wondering what the big deal is. All they see is a foothill. They’re feeling great, because so far it’s easy. They might even believe they are savants. At parties they modestly boast about their quick mastery.
After the just-started-climbing group is the group who have reached the top of the foothill. They’re feeling a reality check, a bubble bursting. They can now see in the distance the experts who have conquered the foothills and who are making true progress.
Experts may fall into several categories. Most of them have been climbing long enough to know that reaching the top is impossible. There is just too much. They are focused on their small slice of mastery. Experts have gained the self-awareness to respect themselves and what they can do, but they also feel involuntarily humbled. In conversations, their lack of arrogance despite their expertise might (perversely) be perceived as a lack of confidence, which will perpetuate the cycle: the unaware might assume that “there’s nothing to it.”
This effect is seen across the spectrum of “stuff there is to be good at.” Knowing about it is the only way to avoid making the mistake. We can set ourselves up in the very healthy space of respecting others’ expertise, while remaining confident in our own. By anticipating that foothill moment, we can also avoid being disappointed and discouraged, which will aid us in continually challenging ourselves to learn.
